Andrew Britton Monetary Regimes of the Twentieth Century (2001)

摘要

Britton's book is vast in scope and ambitious in attempting to outline the past century's monetary policy of the five major western industrial nations (Germany, France, Britain, US and Japan). The book includes an introduction and eight chapters which are chronologically organized into ten to fifteen year periods. Each of the eight chapters are divided into four sections which include a review of the major macroeconomic variables of the era, the evolution of domestic government policy, broader international monetary relations, and Finally, the interrelationships between different historical periods. His historical "grand narrative" integrates monetary policy within a broader political context driven by market confidence. Policies rise and fall based on the collective belief in the stability of the current economic policy regime. For example, the pre-WWI gold standard was effective, Britton claims, because of faith in the standard and not because it was an intrinsically good policy. Consequently, the gold standard collapses when confidence wanes. In a broader context, the century is marked by early trust in endogenous market stability which breaks down with the 1930s depression. Faith in the market is then replaced by faith in active government policy. The state's ability to effectively fine tune the economy (Britton's self-described utopia) collapses with the oil supply shocks and subsequent stagflation of the 1970s. By the end of the century, confidence in non-interventionist policies is resumed. While similar to the pre-WWI gold standard, it is now speculative exchange rate markets, rather than gold, which limit activist policy intervention. This leads the author to conclude that unlike microeconomics, macroeconomic policies have had no universal tenets but rest instead on the contemporary confidence of economic participants. Simply put, macroeconomic policy works when people believe it will work.