Sensitivity of wheat crop to projected climate change in non-traditional areas.

摘要

An attempt has been made to quantify the effect of projected climate change on wheat production in non-traditional wheat areas comprising states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan that contribute about 20 per cent of national wheat production. InfoCrop model was calibrated and validated using research farm data of Vasad, District Anand (Central Gujarat) and were used for climate change impact study using PRECIS downscaled, weather data of baseline period (1961-1990) and A2a scenario for projected period (2071-2100). Different crop management were tried for simulation in order to identifying adaptation options. Average annual maximum temperature for the projected period is likely to be higher than the base period by 3.96 degrees C with maximum of 5.78 degrees C for November and minimum 2.44 degrees C for May. Similarly, the average minimum temperature is likely to rise by 4.36 degrees C with maximum increase of 5.94 degrees C during December and minimum rise of 2.76 degrees C during July. Average annual rainfall for central Gujarat region is likely to increase by 36 percent. Under irrigated condition, each degree rise in average temperature over crop growing period will take toll of 3.02 q of wheat in already low yield area, similarly under restricted managements conditions one degree rise in temperature will reduce yield by about 2.0 q ha-1 under restricted irrigation management conditions. Further already short crop duration (100-105 days) is likely to further shorten by 15 to 20 days under projected climatic condition for A2a scenario. None of the management practices like shifting in sowing date, number of irrigation and amount of nitrogen tried for adaptation options was found beneficial and in all cases there was substantial yield loss.