Was Rising Energy and Electricity Usage in Industrial Nations (since 1960) Due More to Population Growth or to Other Causes?

摘要

The growth in industrial nations of total primary energy supply (TPES) and electricity consumption, over the period 1960 to 2008, is decomposed into components due to population growth and nonpopulation factors. Yearly fluctuations in TPES and electricity due to nonpopulation factors are greater than those due to population growth. However, after 1970, nonpopulation increments in TPES were often negative, thus subtracting from cumulative consumption. Population components were always positive, continually adding to consumption. In some nations (the U.S., Canada, the UK and Australia), the cumulative effect of population came to equal or exceed the influence of nonpopulation causes on TPES. The situation is different for electricity consumption, which rose so quickly in all nations that population growth made little difference. These findings imply that policies to limit electricity consumption in industrial nations, and to reduce the need for new electrical generators and transmission lines, should focus on reducing per capita demand. In contrast, policies to conserve TPES need to attend more closely to population growth.