The impact of policy on the growth of precision medicine

摘要

ObjectivesAlthough precision medicine is a rapidly-emerging field in healthcare, its growth for the next few decades depends on a number of scientific and economic factors. Policy will play a major role in addressing these factors. In this study, we dynamically simulated the impact of policies related to the two factors—'knowledge sharing and accumulation’and ‘reimbursement’—foregrounded in the literature as having the most significant influence on the growth of precision medicine. MethodsTo analyze the impact of specific policies, we used system dynamics methodology. This allowed us to analyze multiple interaction processes, feedback loops, time delays, and other nonlinear effects. ResultsAccording to our results, strengthening the knowledge sharing and accumulation policy greatly contributes to the growth of precision medicine by significantly increasing its market share through a complex route. Conversely, strengthening the reimbursement policy only slightly increases precision medicine's market share and is therefore unable to change an industry based on blockbuster drugs. ConclusionsWe conclude that it is preferable to prioritize and actively implement a knowledge sharing and accumulation policy rather than a reimbursement policy. However, knowledge sharing and accumulation policies must be carefully handled in order to avoid individual privacy issues. To prevent such issues, there must be joint cooperation and efforts not only within one country but also among any related countries. Additionally, although reimbursement funding is often scarce and the policy's effects might be limited, a reimbursement policy is needed throughout the development cycle for drug treatments, devices, and supporting diagnostics.