Consumption of cotton fibre by the world's textile mills looks set to fall by 11.8% in the 2019/20 season (August 1,2019-July 31,2020),according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)-reflecting a slowdown in global economic growth and disruption to supply chains resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.At the same time,production of cotton fibre is set to rise by 2.1% and,as a result,demand will be lower than supply with a resulting rise in stock levels.Given these expectations,there has been downward pressure on prices-exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.According to the ICAC,the cotton price will average 71 US cents/lb in the 2019/20 season-13 US cents/lb lower than in 2018/19.Looking ahead to the 2020/21 season,global cotton fibre consumption is expected to be up by 3.8% as Chinese demand revives,according to Cotton Outlook.This increase is predicted to coincide with a 2.9% decline in the cotton crop,stemming largely from a general switching away from cotton by farmers in the light of recent falls in prices.Nevertheless,the amount of cotton fibre produced will still be greater than the amount consumed and so there is likely to be an increase in stocks and the cotton price will remain under downward pressure.In fact,the cotton price is likely to average.57 US cents/lb in the 2020/21 season,which would be 14 cents/lb lower than the average price in 2019/20.
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