Contribution of modelling in the study of transmission dynamics of virus in metapopulations: application to swine infl uenza A viruses in pig herds

摘要

Modelling in epidemiology can be used for parameter estimation, understanding infectious process or control strategies evaluation, and is based on a mathematical model representing the infectious process derived from the SIR model (susceptible-infectious-removed). This model is further adapted to the disease under study with additional health statuses to represent more precisely the characteristics of the infectious agent and to couple the infection dynamics with the population dynamics of the studied system. This adaptation is documented by descriptive and analytic epidemiological studies to obtain a model representing the infectious process in a realistic way. Risk assessment and/or evaluation of control strategies can be proposed by the model simulation. The use of a modelling approach to understand the determinisms of a viral infectious process within a structured animal population is further illustrated by the example of swine influenza A viruses persistence in pig farms. The model set up to this aim is used to better understand the mechanisms related to viruses persistence within the herd and identify potential control measures that could be applied in farm conditions.