A 10-year radar-based analysis of orographic precipitation growth and decay patterns over the Swiss Alpine region

摘要

The dependence of precipitation growth and decay on the orientation of orographic features, mesoscale flow and freezing-level height is quantified using a 10-year archive of composite weather radar images over the Swiss Alpine region. The mesoscale flow is described by the motion of radar precipitation echoes, computed through variational echo tracking, while the freezing-level height is extracted from the analyses of the numerical weather prediction model COSMO. On the northern side of the Alps, the areas of growth are generally observed on the upwind slopes of the Alpine chain, while on the southern side their location also depends on factors other than the motion of precipitation, such as the convergence of low-level flows. On the other hand, the decay of precipitation is generally found in the inner Alpine valleys and on the downwind slopes of the Alpine chain. Compared to situations characterized by low freezing level, the areas of precipitation growth penetrate more into the mountain range with high-freezing-level conditions. When considering a time lag of 1 h and specific flow conditions, the systematic growth and decay of precipitation can explain up to 30-40% of its total variability over the orography. The relative contribution to the total variability is lower with high freezing level because the non-systematic variability is larger. The statistical analysis of precipitation growth and decay using large archives of composite radar images highlights the mesoscale flow conditions and geographical locations most prone to orographic precipitation enhancement, but also has potential to improve existing precipitation nowcasting systems in mountainous regions and to provide a basis for the verification of systematic biases of numerical weather prediction models.