Attention turns to strong Q3 set up by high frequency data, but we expect bounce and fade

摘要

Real GDP shrank 31.7% in the second quarter, according to BEA's second estimate, published 27 August.1 This was little revised from the advance estimate of-32.9% in either the aggregate or the detail, and was easily the sharpest quarterly decline on record. Real Gross Domestic Income contracted 33.3% as BEA's first estimate of second-quarter corporate profits showed them declining 37.7%o. This was in sharp contrast to S&P 500 operating earnings which, with 95% of companies reporting, surged 244.4%.