Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility‐scale PV levelised cost of electricity

摘要

Abstract >Solar photovoltaics (PV) is already the cheapest form of electricity generation in many countries and market segments. Market prices of PV modules and systems have developed so fast that it is difficult to find reliable up to date public data on real PV capital (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX) on which to base the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) calculations. This paper projects the future utility‐scale PV LCOE until 2050 in several European countries. It uses the most recent and best available public input data for the PV LCOE calculations and future projections. Utility‐scale PV LCOE in 2019 in Europe with 7% nominal weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ranges from 24 €/MWh in Malaga to 42 €/MWh in Helsinki. This is remarkable since the average electricity day‐ahead market price in Finland was 47 €/MWh and in Spain 57 €/MWh in 2018. This means that PV is already cheaper than average spot market electricity all over Europe. By 2030, PV LCOE will range from 14 €/MWh in Malaga to 24 €/MWh in Helsinki with 7% nominal WACC. This range will be 9 to 15 €/MWh by 2050, making PV clearly the cheapest form of electricity generation everywhere. Sensitivity analysis shows that apart from location, WACC is the most important input parameter in the calculation of PV LCOE. Increasing nominal WACC from 2 to 10% will double the LCOE. Changes in PV CAPEX and OPEX, learning rates, or market volume growth scenarios have a relatively smaller impact on future PV LCOE. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> 太阳能光伏（PV）已经是许多国家和市场段中最便宜的发电形式。 PV模块和系统的市场价格发展得如此之快，即难以找到关于真实光伏资本（CAPEX）和运营支出（OPEX）的可靠公共数据，以便基于电力（LCoE）计算的调用成本。本文将未来的效用范围PV LCoe项目投射到几个欧洲国家的2050年。它使用最新和最佳可用的公共输入数据，用于PV LCoE计算和未来预测。欧洲的欧洲公共规模PV LCoE 2019年，欧洲欧洲7％的资本加权平均成本（WACC）在马拉加地区的24欧元/毫米/毫米/兆瓦。这是显着的，因为芬兰的平均电力日期市场价格为47欧元，在2018年的57欧元/兆瓦。这意味着PV已经比欧洲的平均现货市场电力便宜。到2030年，PV Lcoe的范围为马拉加14欧元/兆瓦，赫尔辛基的24欧元/兆瓦以7％的名义WACC。 2050年，这一范围将是9至15欧元/毫升，使PV明显是最便宜的发电形式。敏感性分析表明，除了位置，WACC是PV LCoE计算中最重要的输入参数。从2到10％增加标称WACC将使LCOE加倍。 PV CAPEX和OPEX的变化，学习率或市场体积增长情景对未来PV LCoE的影响相对较小。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-29870/'>《Progress in photovoltaics》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2020年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共15页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/7667.html" title="通信系统（传输系统）">通信系统（传输系统）;</a><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1790.html" title="光电子技术、激光技术">光电子技术、激光技术;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=investment cost projections&option=203" rel="nofollow">investment cost projections;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=LCOE&option=203" rel="nofollow">LCOE;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=learning curve&option=203" rel="nofollow">learning curve;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=PV economics&option=203" rel="nofollow">PV economics;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：投资成本预测;LCoE;学习曲线;光伏经济学; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704024604859.html">Impact of weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters on future utility‐scale PV levelised cost of electricity</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-29870/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Progress in photovoltaics .</a> <span>2020</span><span>,第6期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：加权平均成本的资本，资本支出和其他参数对未来的公用事业尺度PV电力成本的影响</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_energy_thesis/0204120226739.html">Clarifications of and improvements to the equations used to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and comments on the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=L.D. 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