The improbable plunge. What facts refute reasons to expect that the effectiveness of HPV vaccination programs to prevent cervical cancer could be low?

摘要

There are powerful reasons to hope, believe, expect or predict that universal vaccination with HPV vaccines of teenage girls in Western countries will in some 30-60 years prevent many - or even most - cases of cervical cancer (Baden et al., 2007; Bosch et al., 2008; Haug, 2008). Regulatory decisions on HPV vaccines and political decisions on HPV immunization programs taken during the past few years do have a scientific basis. Of course - science being a quintessentially human activity (Gould, 2004) - not all such reasons are purely scientific. Some are political and ideological, which is inevitable, and not necessarily detrimental for public interests.