Producers in the Opec/non-Opec output agreement are wary of slowing oil demand growth and a sustained rise in US oil output, with the official expiry of their production agreement due at the end of this month. Crude prices could fall as low as $30/bl without an extension of the Opec/ non-Opec output deal, Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov says. He made the comments at a budget and taxes committee session in parliament on 10 June. Energy minister Alexander Novak, who met his Saudi counterpart Khalid al-Falih in Moscow on the same day, was in cautious agreement - “such a scenario should not be ruled out”, he said. There are high risks involved if the market is oversupplied and “we need an in-depth analysis of June data in order to take a weighted decision [on the future of the output deal] in Vienna”, he said. There is a “growing consensus” over the need to extend the Opec/non-Opec agreement, which expires on 30 June, according to al-Falih. “On the Opec side, a rollover is almost in the bag… from the first half of 2019,” he said on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum this month.
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