First-Order Mantle Subduction-Zone Structure Effects on Ground Motion: The 2016 M-w 7.1 Iniskin and 2018 M-w 7.1 Anchorage Earthquakes

摘要

The 24 January 2016 Iniskin, Alaska earthquake, at M-w 7.1 and 111 km depth, is the largest intermediate-depth earthquake felt in Alaska, with recorded accelerations reaching 0.2g near Anchorage. Ground motion from the Iniskin earthquake is underpredicted by at least an order of magnitude near Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, and is similarly overpredicted in the back-arc north and west of Cook Inlet. This is in strong contrast to the 30 November 2018 earthquake near Anchorage that was also M-w 7.1 but only 48 km deep. The Anchorage earthquake signals show strong distance decay and are generally well predicted by ground-motion prediction equations. Smaller intermediate-depth earthquakes (depth > 70 km and 3 < M< 6.4) with hypocenters near the Iniskin mainshock show similar patterns in ground shaking as the Iniskin earthquake, indicating that the shaking pattern is due to path effects and not the source. The patterns indicate a first-order role for mantle attenuation in the spatial variability of strong motion. In addition, along-slab paths appear to be amplified by wave-guide effects due to the subduction of crust at > 1 Hz; the Anchorage and Kenai regions are particularly susceptible to this amplification due to their fore-arc position. Both of these effects are absent in the 2018 Anchorage shaking pattern, because that earthquake is shallower and waves largely propagate in the upper-plate crust. Basin effects are also present locally, but these effects do not explain the first-order amplitude variations. These analyses show that intermediate-depth earthquakes can pose a significant shaking hazard, and the pattern of shaking is strongly controlled by mantle structure.