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An error correction approach to modelling beef supply response in South Africa.

机译:南非牛肉供应响应建模的错误校正方法。

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This study modelled the supply response of beef in South Africa using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The ECM was the preferred model because it corrects for some of the limitations observed in previous studies that investigated the supply response of beef in South Africa. Using rainfall, real producers' price of beef, lamb, pork, chicken, yellow maize, imports and cattle population to represent climatic, economic, trade and demographic factors, respectively, as identified in the literature, the supply response of beef in South Africa was modelled as the number of cattle marketed for slaughtering. This article confirms that beef producers in South Africa respond to economic, climatic, trade and demographic factors in the long-run. In the short-run, however, the article shows that cattle marketed for slaughtering are responsive to climatic factors (i.e. rainfall) and imports of beef. Animal demographics, producer price of yellow maize and the producer price of beef were found not to have a short-run effect on cattle marketed for slaughtering
机译:这项研究使用误差校正模型(ECM)对南非牛肉的供应响应进行了建模。 ECM是首选模型,因为它纠正了先前研究南非牛肉供应反应的研究中观察到的某些局限性。如文献中所述,使用降雨,牛肉,羔羊,猪肉,鸡肉,黄玉米,进口和牛群的实际生产者价格分别代表气候,经济,贸易和人口因素,南非的牛肉供应响应被建模为销售用于屠宰的牛的数量。这篇文章证实了南非的牛肉生产者从长远来看对经济,气候,贸易和人口因素的反应。但是,从短期来看,该文章表明,出售用于屠宰的牛对气候因素(即降雨)和牛肉进口有反应。发现动物种群,黄玉米生产者价格和牛肉生产者价格对出售屠宰的牛没有短期影响

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