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Risk Premiums and Forward Basis: Evidence from the Soybean Oil Market

机译:风险溢价和远期基础:来自豆油市场的证据

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摘要

Forward pricing contracts for soybean oil are important supply chain arrangements in both the biodiesel and food industries. Forward pricing is often extended to end-users by soybean oil processors where the forward price quote is a function of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures price and the cash-futures basis. Upon entering a forward pricing agreement, the processor (seller) assumes the risk associated with basis fluctuations. This research examines if soybean oil processors extract a market premium for assuming this risk. Using forward basis quotes and subsequent realized basis values for soybean oil, it is found that soybean oil processors do not charge an embedded cost for their forward pricing services. Furthermore, the results suggest that the absence of a statistically significant embedded cost may be due to the lack of predictability in the basis or the inability of soybean oil processors to adequately forecast soybean oil basis levels.
机译:大豆油的远期定价合同是生物柴油和食品行业中重要的供应链安排。大豆油加工商通常将远期定价延伸至最终用户,其中远期报价是芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)期货价格和现金期货基础的函数。输入远期定价协议后,处理方(卖方)承担与基准波动有关的风险。这项研究检验了大豆油加工商是否承担了承担这一风险的市场溢价。使用大豆油的远期基准报价和随后的实现基准值,可以发现大豆油加工商不为其远期定价服务收取嵌入式成本。此外,结果表明,没有统计上显着的嵌入成本可能是由于缺乏基础的可预测性或大豆油加工商无法充分预测大豆油的基础水平。

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