Optimism over CIS crop production starts to shrink US/EU wheat trade

摘要

Wheat sentiment was undermined last week by talk of an early resurgence in 'Black Sea7 (CIS) export competition, retreating US and EU sales and a big crop forecast from Canada. Increasing optimism over coming crop recoveries seems to be edging 'BlackSea' countries earlier than expected back to their traditional role of setting the summer floor price for wheat. Some sources have also suggested last year's Russian crop was larger than thought, reportedly talking it up to as much as 42 million tonnes compared with the 37.7mt estimated by the USD A and the International Grains Council (IGC). New crop Russian estimates are meanwhile rising to as much as 58.5mt, allowing wheat exports to recover to 16-17mt from this season's estimated 10.7mt.