How sound is the science behind ILUC legislation?

摘要

The European Parliament and the other EU co-legislators are currently struggling to impose limits on the amount of indirect land use change (ILUC) likely to result from the European Union's biofuel policies. It is however, becoming clear that that this legislative drive is based on assumptions arising from some very flimsy scientific evidence. Indeed, it is likely that these assumptions, rather than scientific analysis, form the major justification for any likely limitations imposed on biofuel production. The 2009 Renewable Energy Directive (RED) set a target of a 10% share of renewable energy in the transport sector, and a 6% greenhouse gas reduction for fuels used in the transport sector, by 2020. The contribution from biofuels to these targets was expected to be significant.