FAO/OECD Outlook: Uncertainty to drive commodity price volatility

摘要

Uncertainty over government policy, economic growth and production volumes, combined with tight inventory levels and high energy prices levels are expected to drive commodity price volatility over the next decade. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 projects the general trajectory of cereal, oilseed and sugar crop prices to remain upwards despite rising production levels due to increasing demand and input cost pressures. "Looking forward, further bouts of price surges and volatility remain aclear possibility in response to unforeseen production shocks in major producing countries and particularly while global stocks remain at low levels," the report states. "Prices will remain on a higher plateau over the next decade," the study forecasts,especially for dairy and meat - a statement questioned by a spokesperson for the European Commission's agriculture unit, arguing there is a "strong uncertainty" due to volatility.