World Soya Meal Production Revised Downward But Still Large Enough To Cover Demand Diminishing growth in output of seven other oilmeals is likely to contrast with a pronounced recovery of soya meal production in 2019/20

摘要

Outlook 2019/20: World production is forecast to increase to 243.5 Mn T next season,driven by the pronounced recovery in Argentina.Yet,this is 0.8 Mn T below our June assessment because of the downward revision on account of the US.We now estimate world exports of soya meal at 67.7 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2019/20,0.2 Mn below our June forecast but still up 1.5 Mn on the year.We assume that Argentine production and exports of soya meai will rise further in Oct/Sept 2019/20 even if the soybean crop to be harvested in early 2020 is somewhat smaller than a year before.Large Argentine supplies will therefore continue to undercut producers in many soya meal consuming countries and result in stiff competition with US and Brazilian suppliers.The reaction of the Chinese livestock industry to the ongoing African Swine Fever disease is one of the key uncertainties in 2019/20.We currently assume that the situation in the Chinese pig sector will stabilize,while the growth in beef,poultry and aquaculture industries will probably accelerate,but the timing is a major variable to watch.Following a setback of 3.2 Mn T this season,we tentatively peg world consumption of soya meal at 243.0 Mn T in 2019/20,up 8.9 Mn on the year.