Ample Supplies + Insufficient Demand = Low Prices

摘要

Our estimate of this season's world soya meal production has been reduced further in May owing to a largerthan expected decline in Chinese protein requirements. Official sources indicate that the Chinese pig herd continued to shrink in April, plummeting by 21 % on the year compared with declines of 19% in March, 17% in February and 13% in January. The disastrous African Swine Fever outbreak is seen denting Chinese soya meal consumption by as much as 6.2 Mn to a 3-year low of 66.3 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2018/19, limiting imports and crushings of soybeans. We peg Chinese soya meal output at 66.2 Mn T this season, also a three-year low and down 7.6 Mn on the year.