NR PRICE IMBROGLIO WHEN WILL PRICES TURNAROUND,AND WHY?

摘要

The annual growth rate of natural rubber(NR)consumption during 2012-2017 was only 3.1%.A Disappointing compared to the period around 2005,but quite in line with the average growth rate over the period 1975-2017 of 3.2%.But the supply side is more important in assessing this: the area under NR in the 11 countries increased by an enormous 45% between 2004 and 2014.This is over 4 million ha.Thailand planted some 34% of this 4 million,Indonesia 16%,Vietnam 13%,China 11%.Malaysia reduced its rubber area by around 150,000 ha.Other strong increases were seen in Myanmar and Cambodia.A strong addition to supply starts coming to the market from some 10 years later on.This leads us to the subject of this article: when will prices move from low to high,and why?And what will happen then?The interdependence between rubber prices rhe relevant types of rubber in this context are: Styrene Butadiene Rubber(SBR),Polybutadiene Rubber(BR),Butadiene(BD),feedstock for SBR and BR and Natural rubber(NR).