Development and validation of a model forecasting the phenology of European tarnished plant bug Lygus rugulipennis in the UK

摘要

1 The European tarnished plant bug Lygus rugulipennis has caused significant economic damage to strawberry production in the U.K. in recent years. 2 Laboratory experiments were conducted to study L. rugulipennis development under fluctuating low temperatures. The results indicated that L. rugulipennis can develop at an appreciable rate at 10 degrees C. 3 We have developed a model predicting the phenology of L. rugulipennis in the U.K. The model assumes that adults overwinter and uses temperature from the first day of a calendar year to simulate pest development. The model was validated against field observations of L. rugulipennis population dynamics monitored under both open-field and protected conditions on weeds and strawberry plants. Predicted L. rugulipennis population patterns from the model agreed well with the observed data. 4 The L. rugulipennis model can be used in practice to enable growers to identify the timing of the first generation of L. rugulipennis adult dispersal into strawberry, or other crops, from weeds. The model will also assist growers with the timing of the deployment of pheromone traps and interpreting the importance of trap catches. This will allow growers to better time and target applications of insecticides against damaging life stages of the pest.