The effects of shale oil production, capital and labour on economic growth in the United States: A maximum likelihood analysis of the resource curse hypothesis

摘要

We examine the role of shale oil production in national economic growth in the United States for the period 2002Q1 to 2019Q4. Within a Cobb-Douglas production framework, we estimate the impact of increasing shale oil production on GDP and total employment. Adopting a maximum likelihood approach with a breakpoint, we observe the positive impact of shale oil production on economic growth is bigger in the post-recession period than in the pre-recession and during recession period. The results further show that shale oil production has a positive impact on the employment level but the impact of shale oil production on gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the impact of shale oil production on employment level. The implication of the results is that shale oil development is yet to indicate tendency of resource curse in the United States.