'Best-Guess' MRAD Provides Robust Evidence for a Limit to Human Lifespan: Reply to de Grey (Rejuvenation Res. 2017;20:261-262)

摘要

Using segmented linear regression to reanalyze the "best-guess" maximum reported age at death data supplied in Aubrey de Grey's editorial, we find compelling evidence for a breakpoint in the mid-1990s, with a positive slope before the breakpoint and a flat or slightly negative slope after it. This confirmation of our earlier results was also modeled using exponential regression. Both the segmented and exponential models were superior to a simple linear regression, providing a better fit for the data even after taking into account their greater number of parameters. These findings are highly robust to the removal of several points from the data and bolster the existing evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Taken in light of both our original analysis and its confirmation by several independent groups, this latest result provides yet more evidence that human lifespan has reached its limit under the current technological paradigm. However, we cannot discount the possibility that novel innovations could propel human lifespan beyond the limit we have identified, if they can overcome the considerable challenges facing them.