Modeling the impacts of coastal land use changes on regional carbon balance in the Chiku coastal zone, Taiwan

摘要

The Chiku coastal zone in Taiwan is characterized by dynamic aquaculture and tourism sectors around the lagoon ecosystem. Recent research efforts focused on the carbon absorption capacity and the interactions between the aquaculture industry and the lagoon. Further exploring land use dynamics in Chiku would enable integration of the findings of these studies into a more comprehensive framework of analysis and would improve estimation of the regional carbon balance. We built a system dynamics model to simulate land use change in this area. This model describes the long-term impact of human activities in the area, mimics their synchronous development in the long term, and thereby provides a basis for estimating the overall carbon balance of the area by combining Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis. Our results suggest that the carbon absorption capacity can be sustainably enhanced by appropriate management actions, such as market prices stabilization for aquaculture and agriculture products and/or the limitation of constructed land development.