Application of the Levenburg-Marquardt back propagation neural network approach for landslide risk assessments

摘要

Landslide disasters are one of the main risks involved with the operation of long-distance oil and gas pipelines. Because previously established disaster risk models are too subjective, this paper presents a quantitative model for regional risk assessment through an analysis of the patterns of historical landslide disasters along oil and gas pipelines. Using the Guangyuan section of the Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing (LCC) long-distance multiproduct oil pipeline (82 km) in China as a case study, we successively carried out two independent assessments: a susceptibility assessment and a vulnerability assessment. We used an entropy weight method to establish a system for the vulnerability assessment, whereas a Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation (LM-BP) neural network model was used to conduct the susceptibility assessment. The risk assessment was carried out on the basis of two assessments. The first, the system of the vulnerability assessment, considered the pipeline position and the angle between the pipe and the landslide (pipeline laying environmental factors). We also used an interpolation theory to generate the standard sample matrix of the LM-BP neural network. Accordingly, a landslide susceptibility risk zoning map was obtained based on susceptibility and vulnerability assessment. The results show that about 70% of the slopes were in high-susceptibility areas with a comparatively high landslide possibility and that the southern section of the oil pipeline in the study area was in danger. These results can be used as a guide for preventing and reducing regional hazards, establishing safe routes for both existing and new pipelines, and safely operating pipelines in the Guangyuan area and other segments of the LCC oil pipeline.