Application of back-propagation neural network on bank destruction forecasting for accumulative landslides in the three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

摘要

In recent years, a large number of bank destruction occur in the reservoir area under the effect of water fluctuation, which may be lead to reservoir accumulative landslide geological hazards finally. The paper conducted the bank destruction forecasting study for accumulative landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China utilizing back-propagation (BP) neural network approach. A representative scenario of Jinle landslide is then taken for analysis purposes. On the basis of the existing data sets of bank destruction cases, the BP neural network forecasting model and the corresponding programs for bank destruction are both presented, whose forecasting result is validated by two independent approaches, namely empirical method and numerical modeling method. Furthermore, the BP neural network model had obvious advantages over the convention approaches in the aspects of the fast calculation speed and high convenience. According to the bank destruction forecasting scale presented above, the corresponding revetment measures can be proposed to prevent the occurring of the bank destruction, whose effectiveness has been further validated by the actual engineering practice.