The effect of providing probabilistic information about a tornado threat on people's protective actions

摘要

National Weather Service issues deterministic warnings in a tornado event. An alternative system is being researched at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). This study investigated how providing the uncertainty information about the tornado occurrence through PHI changes people's protective actions. In an experiment, visual displays of the probabilistic information and deterministic warnings were presented to fifty participants to report their expected protective actions in different scenarios. It was found that the percentage of people who expected to immediately take shelter right after receiving the weather information increased exponentially as their proximity to the threat decreased. When there was more chance that the information about occurrence of a particular tornado was false rather than true, in scenarios that the likelihood of the threat occurrence was less than 50%, providing it through PHI lowered the percentage of people who immediately took shelter. The ordinal logistic regression models showed that the probability of taking protective actions significantly changes by providing the uncertainty information when people have less than 20min lead time before getting impacted by the threat. When the lead time is less than 10min, the probability of immediately taking shelter increases to 94 from 71%, and when the lead time is more than 10 but less than 20min, that probability increases from 53 to 70%, if they are provided with the probabilistic information. Presenting the likelihood of any tornado formation in the area did not have significant effect on the people's protective actions.