Sunspot cycle 24 and the advent of dalton-like minimum

摘要

Ahluwalia and Jackiewicz (2011) have predicted that sunspot cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013 ± 6 months. Here, we discuss the timeline for cycle 24 since its onset in December, 2008 and compare it to the timelines for the last ten cycles (14 to 23) of the 20th century; cycle 24 is rising the slowest. We speculate that cycle 24 may herald the onset of a Dalton-like minimum in the 21st century. The implications of this outcome on global temperature change and ensuing socioeconomic and political scenarios are discussed, on the basis of the historical record.