Iranian oil exports are under renewed pressure, with the US intensifying its eforts to drive exports to zero. We do not expect Washington will be successful in this endeavour and maintain our current forecast for exports to average around 400,000b/d in H219 and 2020. China has thrown Iran a vital lifeline, taking the lion's share of exports in the period since sanctions waivers expired. Deteriorating trade relations with the US give Beijing little incentive to reverse their course. The EU is continuing in its attempts to open credit lines to and protect trade with Iran. However, these eforts will struggle to bear fruit in the face of stringent opposition from the US.
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