Nowcasting algorithm for wind fields using ensemble forecasting and aircraft flight data

Kikuchi Ryota; Misaka Takashi; Obayashi Shigeru; Inokuchi Hamaki; Oikawa Hiroshi; Misumi Akeo

摘要

ABSTRACT >This study proposes an algorithm that combines ensemble numerical weather‐prediction model data and aircraft flight data in a wind nowcasting system for safe and efficient aircraft operation. It uses an ensemble‐weighted average method based on sequential importance sampling (SIS), which is a particle filter method for forecasting the wind field in real time. SIS is applied to the ensemble forecast data and control run data of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) for the two case studies that use flight data from 72 commercial aircraft flights. The results show that SIS can forecast better than the other four methods: direct ensemble average (DEA), elite strategy (ES), and selective ensemble average (SEAV) and weighted average (SEWE), with average improvements in forecast performance of about 10–15%, even at 300?min ahead. In addition, the overall forecast performance between the forecast wind and observation of the radiosonde of SIS was slightly better than DEA. In both cases, the forecast performance was significantly improved on points along the flight path of the aircraft used for this study. Case analyses and the impact of differences in the hyper‐parameters of SIS on forecast performance are also presented in this study. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究提出了一种算法，该算法将集合数值天气预报模型数据和飞机飞行数据组合在风漫气系统中，以进行安全和高效的飞机运行。它使用基于顺序重要性采样（SIS）的集合加权平均方法，这是一种用于实时预测风场的粒子滤波器方法。 SIS适用于欧洲中距离（ECMWF），日本气象学局（JMA），韩国气象局（KMA），环境预测中心（NCEP）和联合的国家中心（ECMWF）的集合预测数据和控制运行数据王国遇到办公室（UKMO）用于两种案例研究，使用72架商用飞机飞行的航班数据。结果表明，SIS可以比其他四种方法更好地预测：直接集合平均（DEA），精英策略和选择性集合平均（SEAV）和加权平均值（SEWE），预测性能约为10 -15％，即使在300？初期。此外，预测风与SIS的无线电探测器之间的总体预测性能略好于DEA。在这两种情况下，预测性能在用于本研究的飞机的飞行路径沿着飞机的飞行路径显着改善。本研究还提出了SIS对预测性能的超参数分析和差异的影响。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-24923/'>《Meteorological applications》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kikuchi Ryota&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kikuchi Ryota;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Misaka Takashi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Misaka Takashi;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Obayashi Shigeru&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Obayashi Shigeru;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Inokuchi Hamaki&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Inokuchi Hamaki;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Oikawa Hiroshi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Oikawa Hiroshi;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Misumi Akeo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Misumi Akeo;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Institute of Fluid ScienceTohoku UniversitySendai Japan;</p> <p>Institute of Fluid ScienceTohoku UniversitySendai Japan;</p> <p>Institute of Fluid ScienceTohoku UniversitySendai Japan;</p> <p>Aeronautical Technology DirectorateJapan Aerospace Exploration AgencyTokyo Japan;</p> <p>Aeronautical Technology DirectorateJapan Aerospace Exploration AgencyTokyo Japan;</p> <p>Aeronautical Technology DirectorateJapan Aerospace Exploration AgencyTokyo Japan;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/164.html" title="大气科学（气象学）">大气科学（气象学）;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=aircraft flight data&option=203" rel="nofollow">aircraft flight data;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=data assimilation&option=203" rel="nofollow">data assimilation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=real‐time prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">real‐time prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=TIGGE&option=203" rel="nofollow">TIGGE;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：飞机飞行数据;数据同化;实时预测;TIGGE; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023665266.html">Nowcasting algorithm for wind fields using ensemble forecasting and aircraft flight data</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kikuchi Ryota&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Kikuchi Ryota,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Misaka Takashi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Misaka Takashi,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Obayashi Shigeru&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Obayashi Shigeru,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-24923/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Meteorological applications .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第3期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用集合预测和飞机飞行数据的风场的Nowcasting算法</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704022685447.html">Data-driven symbolic ensemble models for wind speed forecasting through evolutionary algorithms</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-19373/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Applied Soft Computing .</a> <span>2020</span><span>,第期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：通过进化算法的风速预测数据驱动符号集合模型</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704015803576.html">Development and implementation of an urban wind field database for aircraft flight simulation</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Galway D.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Galway D.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Etele J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Etele J.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Fusina G.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Fusina G. </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-36379/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics: The Journal of the International Association for Wind Engineering .</a> <span>2012</span><span>,第Null期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：飞机飞行模拟城市风场数据库的开发与实现</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-foreign_meeting-208175_thesis/020514310258.html">GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS OF SURFACE WINDS AND WAVES FROM AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM USING SATELLITE DATA</a> <b>[C]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ricardo Martins Campos&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Ricardo Martins Campos,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=C. 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W.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext= Wang, Y.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> Wang, Y.,</a> <span>2012</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：三维风场天气预报的性能评估 - 临近与三维风场空军气象机构天气预报风预报。</span> </p> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-arid-meteorology_thesis/0201253398857.html">基于集合经验模态分解和傅里叶分析的风场预测试验</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张舰齐&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 张舰齐</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=左瑞亭&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,左瑞亭</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王丽琼&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,王丽琼</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4933/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 干旱气象 </a> </span> <span> . 2015</span><span>,第005期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_power-system-protection-control_thesis/0201235802885.html">基于投影寻踪和 BP 神经网络的稳健型风场功率预测算法</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=刘文霞&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 刘文霞</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=高丹丹&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,高丹丹</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=赵天阳&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,赵天阳</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-12138/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 电力系统保护与控制 </a> </span> <span> . 2012</span><span>,第023期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-remote-sensing_thesis/0201292408939.html">ERS散射计全球海面风场数据处理与ElNino海面风场异常观测</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王超&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 王超</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-8949/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 遥感学报 </a> </span> <span> . 1999</span><span>,第4期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-tianjin-university-science-technology_thesis/0201250732719.html">基于风场数据的气旋和反气旋自动识别算法</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=庄硕&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 庄硕</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王萍&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,王萍</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=侯洁&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,侯洁</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4719/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 天津大学学报 </a> </span> <span> . 2017</span><span>,第012期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_oceanologia-limnologia-sinica_thesis/0201253915593.html">MASNUM-WAM海浪模式集合Kalman滤波同化研究-I.风场扰动对海浪模拟影响</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=孙盟&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 孙盟</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=尹训强&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,尹训强</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=杨永增&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,杨永增</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4981/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 海洋与湖沼 </a> </span> <span> . 2016</span><span>,第006期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-5507_thesis/020221380133.html">基于卫星云图的风矢场(云导风)度量模型与算法探讨</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=MEN Fanglong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 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href="/patent-detail/06120112482446.html">基于电网微地形观测数据的风场校正算法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN112505801A </span> <span> . 2021-03-16</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120113708038.html">使用非矩形预测模式来减少用于视频数据预测的运动场存储</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN113892264A </span> <span> . 2022-01-04</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130464138807.html">Wind forecast error compensation for 4-D guidance in a aircraft flight management system</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US5051910A </span> <span> . 1991-09-24</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：飞机飞行管理系统中4-D制导的风向预报误差补偿 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130434116488.html">Aircraft`s information e.g. flight data, system, has aircraft window with 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