Performance of multistate mark-recapture models for temporary emigration in the presence of survival costs

摘要

Temporary emigration is widespread in animals and plants and has important implications for ecological processes, evolution and the conservation of species. It is increasingly studied with capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models. Temporary emigration provides particular challenges to CMR analyses if it involves movement to an unobservable state. A multistate model in which individuals may move between an observable and an unobservable state (called TE model) was developed for such cases. The model assumes equal survival probability in both states. This assumption may be violated, especially if temporary emigration involves trade-offs between survival and reproduction. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of unequal survival probability on power to detect temporary emigration and on bias and precision of estimates is still needed to understand the applicability and limits of the model.