The space-time evolution and driving forces of county economic growth in China from 1998 to 2015

摘要

Coordinated growth in regional economies is fundamental for sustainable economic development. In this study, the space-time dynamics of GDP per capita for 2,303 counties in China from 1998 to 2015 were analyzed based on an exploratory space-time data analysis (ESTDA) framework. The results showed that: (a) there was significant and increasing positive spatiotemporal correlation among county-level economic growth; (b) local spatiotemporal correlation pattern demonstrated a high-high cluster at the eastern coast, and low-low dispersion in the vast central and western regions; (c) changes in LISA time trajectory revealed that economic growth in the coastal urban agglomeration and Inner Mongolia was more dynamic, indicating the emergence of a local spatial structure locking feature and trajectory dependence; and (d) industrialization and informatization were the two primary contributors to county economic growth. Our study suggests that Chinese government should construct network channels linking the central region with eastern China, cultivate economic growth poles and growth axis, and focus on technological innovation to unlock path dependence in county economic growth.