Modelling the impacts of seasonal drought on herbage growth under climate change

摘要

Grassland ecosystems are sensitive to water stress. Seasonal drought can thus disrupt the normal progression of herbage accumulation, with consequences for the economy of grassland-based farming systems. In many areas of the world, risk from drought is anticipated to increase in the future, as climate change is likely to cause not only a rise in temperature but also a shift in precipitation patterns and a decrease in growing-season precipitation levels. The ability to gauge the impact of these changes on herbage production is central to the discussion of how livestock systems can cope with future climatic conditions (Hopkins and Del Prado, 2007).