Blood urea nitrogen to serum creatinine ratio as a prognostic factor in diarrhea-associated hemolytic uremic syndrome: a validation study

摘要

Identifying those children with complicated forms of diarrhea-associated hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+HUS) on admission can optimize their management. Recently, the blood urea nitrogen to serum creatinine ratio (BCR) at admission has been proposed as a novel and accurate predictor of complicated clinical outcome in D+HUS; therefore, we performed this retrospective study aimed to validate such observation in a larger series of patients. A complicated course was defined as developing one or more of the following: severe neurological or bowel injury, pancreatitis, cardiac or pulmonary involvement, hemodynamic instability, hemorrhage, and death. Data from 161 children were reviewed, 50 of them with a complicated disease including five deaths. Those with worse evolution presented a lower admission BCR than those with good outcome (22.5 vs. 30.8; p = 0.005). BCR at admission showed a limited ability to identify children at risk of a complicated course, with an AUC of 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.71) and an optimal cutoff point of 26.7, which achieves a sensitivity of 70% (95% CI 55.2-81.7) and a specificity of 56.7% (95% CI 47-66).