Assessment of Climatic Variability and Development of Localized Climate Prediction Method for Livestock Production in Borana Area, Southern Ethiopia

摘要

This study examines seasonal climate prediction method and evaluates its social and economic values in reducing climate-related hazards on livestock productivity over Borana Zone using monthly rainfall and temperature data recorded over the region for Hie period of 1983-2014. The predictive potential of March-April-May rainfall amounts and patterns in Borana Zone also examined using statistical methods. In view of this, multivariate statistical techniques were applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall. Global and regional climatic processes induced distinct impact on long rainy season over Borana Zone. This was also reflected relatively in regional and local climate drivers. The results revealed that lag relationship between ENSO and homogeneous rahfall regimes El Nino has strong predictability skill for long rainy season of Borana Zone. Furthermore, the study showed that long rain (March-April-May) has declined while temperature over all season has risen throughout the past consecutive decade. Overall, the results as generated from this study revealed that moderate to severe droughts were recurrent, particularly during the main rainy season, which were predicted well in advance using scientific climate prediction tools., Localized seasonal climate prediction tool would therefore be promising to enhance societal preparedness for various climate-relate hazards by availing timely and local-specific weather and climate forecasts.