Prospects for hydropower in Ethiopia: An energy-water nexus analysis

摘要

AbstractIn this article we investigate the prospects for large-scale hydropower deployment in Ethiopia. With two distinct modelling approaches we find high projections for future hydropower generation: between 71 and 87?TWh/yr by 2050 in a stringent climate change control scenario in which Ethiopia contributes substantially to global efforts to reach the 2?°C target of the Paris Agreement. This elevated level is obtained despite domestic water use and irrigated agriculture water demand expansions, and irrespective of hydrological effects from climate change in terms of a drop in average precipitation nation-wide. This amount of hydro-electricity production matches the expected national hydropower potential. Yet, we encourage authorities to take due account of the large impact that climate change may have on rainfall during particular months or years at individual water reservoirs, which we think should be researched in greater detail. Our combined energy cost-minimisation and hydrological balance analysis shows that our models can be jointly used for the assessment of hydropower as climate change mitigation option, and can assist in the design of policies that integrate the energy and water sectors. Our case study did not yield direct reasons for the Ethiopian government to swiftly stop pursuing its current ambitious national hydropower development plan, but we encourage it to adequately internalise an extensive range of factors – including environmental, geopolitical and social – that may induce it to take a different course.Highlights?With two models we assess the desirable and feasible level of hydropower in Ethiopia.?On economic and hydrological grounds we find it may increase to 71–87?TWh/yr in 2050.?This projected amount of hydro-electricity generation seems in reach of the national potential.?It is obtained despite possible average domestic hydrological effects from climate change.?Environmental, geopolitical, social and local climatic factors may lower it substantially.]]>