Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs

Massoud Elias C.; Huisman Jef; Benincà Elisa; Dietze Michael C.; Bouten Willem; Vrugt Jasper A.; Adler Frederick

摘要

Abstract >The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale‐dependent, space‐time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data‐driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two‐predator‐two‐prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：ID =“ELE12876-ABS-AB-ABS-0001”XML：LANG =“EN”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >生态系统的令人生作的复杂性带领生态学家使用数学建模来获得生态关系，流程和动态的理解。为了追求数学途径，这些模型使用本质上观察到的关键模式，过程和关系的简化描述。相比之下，生态数据通常是复杂的，规模依赖性，时空的相关性，并且受到生物与其环境之间的非线性关系的管辖。生态系统模型和数据之间的复杂性的这种差异在模型和数据驱动的方法之间产生了很大的生态差距。在这里，我们使用集合卡尔曼滤波器探索数据同化（DA），以熔断一个具有来自浮游生物社区的2600多天实验的丰富数据。我们分析了我们必须同化衡量的丰富，以预测准确的人口动态，并将人口模型的预测视地平线与一个简单的空模型进行基准。结果表明，达格增强了复杂群落动态的可预测性和预测地平线。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-22290/'>《Ecology letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第1期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Massoud Elias C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Massoud Elias C.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Huisman Jef&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Huisman Jef;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Benincà Elisa&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Benincà Elisa;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dietze Michael C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dietze Michael C.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bouten Willem&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bouten Willem;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Vrugt Jasper A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Vrugt Jasper A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Adler Frederick&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Adler Frederick;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of California IrvineIrvine CA 92697‐1075 USA;</p> <p>Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem DynamicsUniversity of AmsterdamAmsterdam The Netherlands;</p> <p>Centre for Infectious Disease ControlNational Institute for Public Health and the EnvironmentBilthoven The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Earth and EnvironmentBoston UniversityBoston MA 02215 USA;</p> <p>Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem DynamicsUniversity of AmsterdamAmsterdam The Netherlands;</p> <p>Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of California IrvineIrvine CA 92697‐1075 USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/173.html" title="普通生物学">普通生物学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Data assimilation&option=203" rel="nofollow">Data assimilation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ecological models&option=203" rel="nofollow">ecological models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ecosystems&option=203" rel="nofollow">ecosystems;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=food webs&option=203" rel="nofollow">food webs;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forecast horizons&option=203" rel="nofollow">forecast horizons;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=plankton&option=203" rel="nofollow">plankton;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=predator‐prey&option=203" rel="nofollow">predator‐prey;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：数据同化;生态模型;生态系统;食物网;预测视野;浮游生物;捕食者 - 猎物; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023134878.html">Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Massoud Elias C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Massoud Elias C.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Huisman Jef&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Huisman Jef,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Benincà Elisa&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Benincà Elisa,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-22290/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Ecology letters .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第1期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：探讨可预测性的限制：复杂食品网中混沌动力学的数据同化</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704011162764.html">Limits to trophic levels and omnivory in complex food webs: Theory and data</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Williams RJ&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Williams RJ,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Martinez ND&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Martinez ND </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-30505/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">The American Naturalist: Devoted to the Conceptual Unification of the Biological Sciences .</a> <span>2004</span><span>,第3期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：复杂食物网中营养水平和杂食性的限制：理论和数据</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/07040563291.html">Using biogeochemical data assimilation to assess the relative skill of multiple ecosystem models in the Mid-Atlantic Bight: effects of increasing the complexity of the planktonic food web</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Y. 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