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Attribution of temperature changes in Western China

机译:中国西部温度变化的归因

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摘要

ABSTRACT >Western China (WC) is located in the arid and semi‐arid belt of the mid‐latitudes. Understanding the causes of the large temperature increases experienced in this region is of great importance because both the fragile ecological environment and the human societies in WC are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis on the annual mean temperature using an optimal fingerprinting method by comparing observations based on homogenized station data with simulations conducted using the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that the increase in the mean temperature can be attributed to human activities. The effect of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected in single‐signal detection analyses when the response to the ANT forcing is compared directly with the observations. This effect can also be separated from the influence of the natural external forcing in two‐signal analyses. The warming attributable to the ANT forcing explains most of the observed regional warming. The models appear to have underestimated the observed warming, suggesting that the projected future temperature increases based on raw output from the model simulations may have also been underestimated. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译:</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >西部中国(WC)位于干旱和半干旱带的中纬度。了解该地区经验丰富的较大温度升高的原因具有重要意义,因为脆弱的生态环境和WC中的人类社会都非常容易受到气候变化的影响。我们通过使用参与参与耦合模型互通项目第5阶段5(CMIP5)的模拟的仿真站数据,通过比较了使用最佳指纹识别方法对年平均温度进行了检测和归因分析。结果表明,平均温度的增加可归因于人类活动。当直接与观察结果比较蚂蚁强制的响应时,可以在单信号检测分析中检测人体化(Ant)强制的影响。这种效果也可以与两种信号分析中的天然外部强制的影响分开。蚂蚁强迫归属的热身解释了大部分观察到的区域变暖。型号似乎已经低估了观察到的变暖,这表明基于模拟模拟的原始输出的预计未来温度也可能被低估了。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang Yujie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wang Yujie;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sun Ying&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sun Ying;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hu Ting&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hu Ting;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Qin Dahe&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Qin Dahe;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Song Lianchun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Song Lianchun;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityChina;</p> <p>National Climate CenterLaboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>National Climate CenterLaboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>National Climate CenterLaboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=detection and attribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">detection and attribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=mean temperature changes&option=203" rel="nofollow">mean temperature changes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Western China&option=203" rel="nofollow">Western China;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译:检测和归因;平均温度变化;中国西部; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003051.html">Attribution of temperature changes in Western China</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang Yujie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wang Yujie,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sun Ying&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Sun Ying,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hu Ting&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hu Ting,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-21026/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第2期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译:中国西部温度变化的归因</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704013895440.html">Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States.</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bonfils C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Bonfils C.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Santer B. 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