Trends of intraseasonal descriptors of wet and dry spells over equatorial eastern Africa

Gitau Wilson; Camberlin Pierre; Ogallo Laban; Bosire Emily

摘要

ABSTRACT >Many African countries whose economies are largely based on weather/climate sensitive sectors are vulnerable to long‐term changes in weather and climate. This study is aimed at assessing whether the recent decades have observed any significant trend in the intraseasonal descriptors (ISDs) of wet and dry spells at local and sub‐regional levels at seasonal and monthly timescales over equatorial eastern Africa (EEA). Daily rainfall observations over 36 stations and spanning a period of 51?years (1962–2012) were used. >The study has expanded on previous results that showed contrasting trends on seasonal totals between the two rainfall seasons by demonstrating that this also affects the ISDs. At the local level, it was observed that during the long rainfall season, a given ISD would have a significant trend over several neighbouring locations, which was not the case during the short rainfall season. Secondly, for the short rainfall season, a given location would have significant trend in several ISDs. Finally, when a given ISD had a significant trend at seasonal timescale during the long rainfall season, the same ISD would have significant trends in the second and third months of the season and rarely in the first month. Such a feature was not observed for the short rainfall season. Binomial probability distribution assessment confirmed that the significant trends in the various ISDs during the long rainfall season did not occur by mere chance. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >许多经济主要是基于的非洲国家天气/气候敏感部门容易受到天气和气候的长期变化。本研究旨在评估近几十年论在季节性和月阶段赤道东非（EEA）的季节性和次区域水平的湿法和干法术中潮湿和干法术中的任何重要趋势。每日降雨观察超过36个站点并跨越51岁？年（1962-2012）的时间（1962-2012）。该研究扩展了以前的结果，通过展示了两次降雨季节之间的季节总数呈对比趋势这也影响了ISDS。在地方一级，观察到，在长的降雨季节期间，特定的ISD将在几个邻近地区具有重要趋势，这是在短降雨季期间的情况并非如此。其次，对于季度短降雨季节，给定的位置将在几个ISDS中具有重要趋势。最后，当在长的降雨季节期间，当季节性季度季度季度晴空时，同样的ISD在本赛季的第二个和第三个月内具有重要趋势，并且很少在第一个月内。对于短的降雨季节没有观察到这种特征。二项式概率分布评估证实，在漫长的降雨季节期间各种ISDS的重大趋势不会发生。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gitau Wilson&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gitau Wilson;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Camberlin Pierre&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Camberlin Pierre;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ogallo Laban&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ogallo Laban;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bosire Emily&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bosire Emily;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of MeteorologyUniversity of NairobiKenya;</p> <p>Centre de Recherches de Climatologie (CRC) BiogéosciencesUniversity of Bourgogne Franche‐ComtéDijon France;</p> <p>IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)Nairobi Kenya;</p> <p>Department of MeteorologyUniversity of NairobiKenya;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">trends;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=eastern Africa&option=203" rel="nofollow">eastern Africa;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=wet and dry spells&option=203" rel="nofollow">wet and dry spells;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=intraseasonal&option=203" rel="nofollow">intraseasonal;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：趋势;东非;潮湿和干法;气候变化;陷入困境; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003032.html">Trends of intraseasonal descriptors of wet and dry spells over equatorial eastern Africa</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gitau Wilson&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Gitau Wilson,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Camberlin Pierre&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Camberlin Pierre,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ogallo Laban&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Ogallo Laban,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-21026/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第3期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：赤道东非湿法和干性术语的季节性描述符趋势</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/070401342685.html">Wet and dry spells within particularly wet and dry summers in the South African summer rainfall region</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cook C&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Cook C,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Reason CJC&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Reason CJC,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hewitson BC&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hewitson BC </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-16398/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Climate research .</a> <span>2004</span><span>,第1期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：南非夏季降雨地区在特别干燥和潮湿的夏天内的潮湿和干燥天气</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_detail_thesis/0204114380160.html">Wet and dry spells within particularly wet and dry summers in the South African summer rainfall region</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bruce C. 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