Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions

Moore Todd W.

摘要

ABSTRACT >Previous studies provide evidence of possible changes to the climatology of tornadoes in the United States. These include a decrease in the number of tornado days per year, but an increase in the number of days per year with a large number of tornadoes; an increase in the mean number of tornadoes per tornado day; a spatial shift in tornado activity, generally towards the Southeast United States. Most of these studies, however, tend to examine trends at the annual (or spring) and contiguous United States scales. Using tornado data over the period 1954–2016, this study analyses various tornado metrics to determine whether trends are consistent throughout the year and across the United States. Trends are assessed with the Mann–Kendall test and their slopes with the Theil–Sen estimator. The annual analyses indicate that the number of tornadoes per year declined in the West, North Great Plains, South Great Plains, and Midwest regions, but increased in the Southeast. The decreasing/increasing tendencies in the South Great Plains/Southeast led to a reversal of the most active region?–?the South Great Plains had the greatest median tornado frequency early in the study period whereas the Southeast had the greatest in the middle and late periods. Annual analyses also indicate that the previously reported decline in the number of tornado days per year and the increase in the mean number of tornadoes per tornado day per year are generally present across the United States. Seasonal analyses suggest that the proportion of tornadoes occurring in the contiguous United States in summer is decreasing whereas the proportion occurring in fall is increasing. This is especially apparent in the Southeast. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >之前的研究提供了可能变化的证据龙卷风的气候学在美国。这些包括每年龙卷风天数减少，但每年龙卷风数量的日子数量增加;每个龙卷风日的平均龙卷风数量增加;龙卷风活动的空间转变，一般朝向美国东南部。然而，这些研究中的大多数倾向于检查年度（或春季）和连续的美国鳞片的趋势。这项研究分析了在1954 - 2016年期间的龙卷风数据分析了各种龙卷风指标，以确定趋势是否始终是全年和整个美国的趋势。使用Mann-Kendall测试和与Theil-森估算器的斜坡进行评估趋势。年度分析表明，西部，北大平原，南大平原和中西部地区的每年龙卷风数下降，但东南部增加。南伟平原/东南部的趋势下降/增加趋势导致了最活跃的地区的逆转？ - ？南伟平原在研究时期的早期有最大的龙卷风频率，而东南部在中间和晚期最伟大期间。年度分析还表明，此前报告的龙卷风天数下降，每年龙卷风的平均龙卷风数量普遍存在美国。季节性分析表明，在夏季连续的美国发生的龙卷风比例下降，而下降发生的比例正在增加。这在东南部特别明显。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共13页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moore Todd W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Moore Todd W.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Geography and Environmental PlanningTowson UniversityMD USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=United States&option=203" rel="nofollow">United States;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tornadoes&option=203" rel="nofollow">tornadoes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tornado days&option=203" rel="nofollow">tornado days;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climatology&option=203" rel="nofollow">climatology;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">trends;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=spatial distribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">spatial distribution;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：美国;龙卷风;龙卷风天;气候学;趋势;变异性;空间分布; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003028.html">Annual and seasonal tornado trends in the contiguous United States and its regions</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moore Todd W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Moore Todd W. </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-21026/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第3期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：年度和季节性龙卷风趋势在连续的美国及其地区</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_climate-dynamics_thesis/0204112146802.html">Annual and seasonal tornado activity in the United States and the global wind oscillation</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Todd W. 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