Changing relationship between La Ni?a and tropical cyclone landfalling activity in South China (La Ni?a and TC landfalling activity in South China)

Liu Kin Sik; Chan Johnny C. L.

摘要

ABSTRACT >This study investigates the effect of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation and Indo‐Pacific warm pool sea‐surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclone (TC) landfalling activity along the South China coast and develops a scheme for predicting this activity. In general, landfalling activity tends to be suppressed in El Ni?o years but a large uncertainty is found for La Ni?a years. Landfalling activity is generally enhanced in La Ni?a years before 1997 but suppressed in those after 1997, which may be related to the changes in TC frequency and track pattern over the western North Pacific (WNP) as well as the northward shift in genesis locations. The Indo‐Pacific warm pool SST is found to be related to the TC activity over the WNP and an SST index, defined as the average SST anomalies over the North Indian Ocean and the sea near the Philippines, is used to represent this anomaly. A significant warming of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool is found in the recent decade. The temperature change of this warm pool appears to modulate the TC activity over the WNP and TC landfalling activity in South China in a La Ni?a year, with an enhancement (a suppression) of TC activity if a cooling (warming) is found. This difference is related to the changes in the strength of monsoon trough, vertical wind shear and steering flow pattern. Based on these results, a schematic prediction scheme of landfalling activity in South China is proposed. Landfalling activity is likely to be normal or below normal if an El Ni?o event is expected to develop during the TC season. If a La Ni?a event is expected, and the predicted state of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool (obtained using the persistence forecast) shows a warming (cooling), landfalling activity is likely to be normal or below normal (above normal). </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究调查了EL NI的效果？ O-Southern振荡和印度太平洋温水池海面温度（SST）沿着南方沿岸的热带气旋（TC）登陆活动，并制定了一种预测这项活动的计划。一般来说，在El Ni中的陆地活动往往会被抑制？O年，但是为La Ni找到了大量的不确定性？多年来。 La Ni通常在1997年之前增强了登陆活动，但在1997年以后的那些抑制了，这可能与西北太平洋（WNP）的TC频率和轨道模式的变化有关，以及成因位置的北方转变。被发现的印度太平洋温池SST与WNP和SST指数的TC活动有关，定义为北印度洋和菲律宾附近的海洋的平均SST异常，用于代表这种异常。最近十年来发现了印度太平洋温水游泳池的显着变暖。这种温池的温度变化似乎在La Ni中的WNP和TC登陆活动中调节了TC活性，如果发现冷却（变暖），则为一年的TC活性增强（抑制）。这种差异与季风槽，垂直风剪切和转向流动图案的强度的变化有关。基于这些结果，提出了华南地区着陆活动的示意图预测方案。如果预计在TC赛季期间发生EL NI赛事，则登陆活动可能是正常的或正常的正常情况。如果是LA NI？事件是预期的，并且indo-pacific池的预测状态（使用持久性预测获得）显示了升温（冷却），则登陆活动可能正常或低于正常（高于正常）。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共15页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Kin Sik&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Liu Kin Sik;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chan Johnny C. L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chan Johnny C. L.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Guy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong Kong China;</p> <p>Guy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong Kong China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropical cyclone landfall&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropical cyclone landfall;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=South China&option=203" rel="nofollow">South China;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ENSO&option=203" rel="nofollow">ENSO;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Indo‐Pacific warm pool&option=203" rel="nofollow">Indo‐Pacific warm pool;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：热带气旋陆地;气候变异性;华南;ENSO;Indo-Pacific Make Pool; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003025.html">Changing relationship between La Ni?a and tropical cyclone landfalling activity in South China (La Ni?a and TC landfalling activity in South China)</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Kin Sik&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Liu Kin Sik,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chan Johnny C. 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