Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns

Kim Sol; Sinclair Victoria A.; R?is?nen Jouni; Ruuhela Reija

摘要

ABSTRACT >The number and intensity of individual hot days affecting Finland in the current and future climate is investigated together with the circulation patterns associated with the hot days. In addition, the number, length and intensity of heat waves lasting at least 3?days is also considered. ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and both direct model output and bias‐corrected data for historical and future climate [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario] simulations from 17 global climate models are analysed. Three intensities of heat waves and hot days are defined based on daily mean temperature thresholds of 20, 24 and 28?°C. The percentage of summertime days which exceed these temperature thresholds is shown to increase in the future. In ERA‐Interim, 24% of summertime days in southern Finland exceed the lowest temperature threshold while none exceed the highest temperature threshold. Under the RCP4.5 scenario these values increase to 47 and 1%, respectively. Larger relative changes occur in northern Finland. Heat waves are also longer in the RCP4.5 simulations than in the historical simulations. In southern Finland, the mean length of a heat wave where the 20?°C daily mean temperature is exceeded is 6.1?days in the historical simulations but increases to 9.4?days in the RCP4.5 simulations. The hot days in both northern and southern Finland are associated with a statistically significant positive pressure anomaly over Finland and to the east to Finland and a statistically significant negative pressure anomaly over Russia between 90 and 120°E. These pressure anomalies were evident for all intensities of hot days in the current climate and the future climate. The magnitude of the pressure anomalies increases as the daily mean temperature threshold increases. However, for hot days which exceed the same daily mean temperature threshold, </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >个人炎热天的数字和强度芬兰在目前和未来的气候中调查了与炎热天相关的循环模式。此外，还考虑了持续3.天数的热波的数量，长度和强度。分析了历史和未来气候的直接模型输出数据和直接模型输出和偏置数据[代表浓度通路4.5（RCP4.5）情景]模拟从17个全球气候模型的模拟。基于20,24和28Ω·℃的每日平均温度阈值来定义热波和炎热天的三个强度。超过这些温度阈值的夏令日的百分比显示未来增加。在ERA临时，芬兰南部的24％的夏季日超过了最低温度阈值，而没有超过最高温度阈值。根据RCP4.5场景，这些值分别增加到47和1％。芬兰北部发生的相对变化较大。 RCP4.5模拟中的热波也比历史模拟更长。在芬兰南部，超过20？°C每日平均温度的热波的平均长度为6.1？在历史模拟中为6.1天，但在RCP4.5模拟中增加至9.4天。北部和南部的炎热日子与芬兰和东部到芬兰的统计上显着的正压力异常相关，俄罗斯在90到120°之间的统计上显着的负面压力异常。这些压力异常对于当前气候和未来气候的所有炎热天的强度都很明显。随着每日平均温度阈值的增加，压力异常的大小增加。但是，对于超过相同每日平均温度阈值的炎热天， </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共16页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kim Sol&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kim Sol;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sinclair Victoria A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sinclair Victoria A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=R?is?nen Jouni&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">R?is?nen Jouni;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ruuhela Reija&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ruuhela Reija;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of PhysicsUniversity of HelsinkiFinland;</p> <p>Department of PhysicsUniversity of HelsinkiFinland;</p> <p>Department of PhysicsUniversity of HelsinkiFinland;</p> <p>Finnish Meteorological InstituteHelsinki Finland;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=circulation patterns&option=203" rel="nofollow">circulation patterns;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Finland&option=203" rel="nofollow">Finland;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=heat waves&option=203" rel="nofollow">heat waves;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：循环模式;气候变化;CMIP5;芬兰;热浪; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li 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