Modelling Urban Expansion in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region

摘要

The main goal of this paper was to apply logistic regression for modeling urban sprawl in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region (GCMR) in a GIS environment and to find the driving factors. Land-use data of GCMR were derived from the 2004, and 2013 satellite images. Seven driving factors were applied in this model: distances to nearest existing urban uses, distance to major roads, distance to CBD, distance to County centers, distance to Nile River, and cost distance to main urban centers. The most significant factors according to the analysis were neighborhood factors, local urban centers, and accessibility factors of distances to urban uses and major roads. The factors were evaluated using data derived from existing maps and remotely sensed data. Logistic regression analysis was carried out in 60 m resolution data, a map of urban sprawl probability was estimated from that analysis. Data from 2004-2013 were applied for results validation by the relative operating characteristic (ROC) method. The validation results pointed out high accuracy rates for the north, middle, and south sectors of the study area.