Econometric Assessment of Social Indicators' Influence on the Regional Economic Growth Dynamics (Case Study of the Subjects of the Volga Federal District)

摘要

Social factors of endogenous economic growth are becoming the subject of modern research increasingly frequently. The contribution of human capital individual parameters and income inequality indicators are the most studied ones. Cross-country studies lead to conflicting conclusions. The results of Russian research are generally unambiguous, since the regional level of analysis is more similar in terms of institutional conditions and the level of socio-economic development. However, they do not define the nature of the impact of a number of significant social indicators on regional economic growth. In this regard, the purpose of the paper is to determine the nature of the influence of a set of social indicators on the regional economic growth dynamics by means of econometric modeling tools. The methodological basis is made up by the epistemological tools, in particular, system, hypothesis-deductive and dialectical approaches, as well as the methods of content analysis and econometric modeling. The most significant results characterizing the scientific novelty of the presented research include the following: 1) it is determined that the impact of the population's birth rate, mortality and morbidity on GRP corresponds to the nature of the dependencies identified for countries having experienced the second demographic transition; 2) it is established that the character of influence of the indicators of "life expectancy", and "the number of students studying in bachelor, specialist, master degree programs" and "the number of employees with higher education in the region's economy" on the GRP does not correspond to the trends in developed countries; 3) it is proved that the inconsistency of the obtained results is a consequence of the underestimation of human capital as the main factor in the development of the Russian economy at the present stage; 4) the extent and consequences of the restraining effect of the analyzed social indicators on the dynamics of regional economic growth are determined. Based on the results of econometric modeling, the priorities of regional socio-economic policy for the medium term are identified, depending on the level of their impact. The authors associate the prospects for future research with a deeper study of the impact of life expectancy and mortality factors on the regional economic growth, as well as the verification of this model for the entire set of regions of the Russian Federation.