An economic risk analysis of fertiliser microdosing and rainwater harvesting in a semi-arid farming system in Tanzania

摘要

This paper attempts to relate farm-level technologies in a semi-arid area with economic viability, taking risk analysis into consideration. Data gathered from various sources, such as a household baseline survey, farm trials, agricultural experts and government agencies, were used. Crop yields, crop prices, and prices for key production inputs, mainly fertiliser and rainwater harvesting through tied-ridges, were simulated for the net economic return distributions, e.g., pearl millet, groundnuts, and sunflower under different farm-technologies scenarios using a farm simulation model. The results indicate that an intercrop of pearl millet and groundnuts is the most economically viable farming system compared with other alternative scenarios if supplemented with rainwater harvesting technology. Risk neutral and risk-averse farmers both prefer this approach. If these technologies are geographically considered and synthesised, they may be cost-effective for farmers with implications for the current and future livelihood and productivity of crops in rural semi-arid areas.