Potential Role of Technology in Increasing Productivity and Income at National Level: A Case of Cell-culture Vaccine against Classical Swine Fever

摘要

Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the important diseases of pigs causing high mortality. The ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, has developed a cell culture vaccine for this disease during the period 2002-2008. The vaccine willmost probably be marketed by various agencies, in both public and private sectors by 2017-18. The present study attempts to evaluate the potential economic feasibility of CSF control programme using the above vaccine at the national level using economicsurplus model. The potential change in total surplus, as a result of CSF control programme is found to be 53.31 crore per annum. The change in economic surplus and the research & delivery costs was projected to 2030. Using a long-run discount rate of 7.5 per cent, the benefits were compared to research & delivery cost and the NPV, IRR and BCR were calculated. The NPV, IRR and BCR of CSF control programme are found to be 322.55 crore, 40 per cent and 41:1, respectively. Sensitivity analysis has revealed that the benefits are most sensitive to assumptions regarding lower degree of immunity offered by the vaccine and a higher discount rate. The changes in results of the model, based on baseline assumption, were negligible for changes in assumption in regard to adoption rates, ceiling level of adoption and higher demand elasticity.