Modelling the impact of climate change on the yield of western European reseeded grasslands

摘要

Climate change will affect the yield of grasslands, with consequences for grazing and silage production. It is necessary to anticipate this impact to determine what grassland and system management changes are appropriate.Western Europe (here defined as areas with an Atlantic climate, ranging from northern Portugal to southern Norway) will undergo significant changes in the coming decades (Kovats et al., 2014). By 2100, mean annual temperatures are expected to increase by1.5 - 5°C, rainfall could increase or decrease by up to 20% (depending on location) (IPCC, 2013) and there will be a continuing rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study aims to quantify the impact of these changes on grasslands using two different modelling approaches. The first is a dynamic model, Century (Parton et al., 1987), which is an ecosystem analysis tool which simulates carbon and nitrogen fluxes throughout the plant-soil system. The second is an empirical approach using linear regression. The use of two approaches provides stronger evidence for the results (if they agree) or else highlights issues with the methodologies which can be explored further (if they differ).