Review of the 2018/19 Cotton Season

摘要

Global stocks at the start of the 2018/19 season were 1% higher than the previous season at an estimated 18.7 million tonnes. At 84 cents per pound, the international reference price of cotton was lower than the previous season's ending average of 88cents per pound. After a 99.5 cent per pound price at the start of the season, prices fell throughout the season. Global area under cotton decreased by 1% to 32.6 million hectares. Global yield decreased slightly by 2% to 790 kg/ha but remained above theten-year average of 776 kg/ha. As a result, global production decreased by 3% to 25.7 million tonnes. Weakening economic growth amidst trade issues set the environment for a decrease in consumption with a near 1% loss to 26.2 million tonnes. With consumption exceeding production, global ending stocks for the season decreased by 2% to 18.3 million tonnes. As ending stock levels in China lowered, the ratio of stocks held in China and stocks held outside of China inverted with 52% of global stocks now being held outside of China. Trade in cotton lint increased by 2% to 9.2 million tonnes with the USA, Brazil, West Africa and Australia leading in global exports.New uncertainties have emerged in addition to the usual risks facing agriculture. Following several years of relatively calm market conditions, world agricultural mar-kets today face mounting risks, including policy uncertainty from trade tensions. Open, transparent and predictable trade is important for the cotton market and its role as an important commodity in the global economy.