The inventory-based approach for prediction of SOC change following land use change

摘要

This paper describes and illustrates an approach to predict soil organic carbon (SOC) change in time after land use change as derived from SOC differences in space. The approach requires the availability of a SOC inventory for spatially explicit combinations of soil and land use type, further termed landscape units (LSU). SOC of LSU with equal soil type but different land use type are compared and the observed differences in SOC are interpreted as the expected SOC change after the corresponding landuse change. From a confrontation with time series of agro-statistical data on crop and grassland areas and on animal manure production, we conclude that the approach is a low-cost alternative for more complex methods like multi-temporal assessments and modelling, provided that (i) an inventory reflecting current management and climate conditions and (ii) additional information on the extent and type of recent land use changes are available. Examples of land use and land management changes are discussed,such as grassland - cropland conversions, the conversion of permanent to temporary grassland, or changes in manure application.