Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model

摘要

In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordinates of 39°-42°N, 25°-32°E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log T_t = 0. 26 M_(min) + 0. 06 M_p-0. 56 log M_0 + 13. 79 and M_f = 0. 63 M_(min) - 0. 07 M_p + 0. 43 log M_0 - 7. 56. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0. 53 and 0. 35 for the first relation and 0. 66 and 0. 39 for the second relation, respectively. On the basis of these relations and using the occurrence time and magnitude of the last mainshocks in each seismogenic source, the probabilities of occurrence P(Δt) of the next mainshocks during the next five decades and the magnitude of the expected mainshocks were determined.